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<title>Ecological Resilience and Forecasting Lab</title>
<link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/latest-content.html</link>
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<lastBuildDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT</lastBuildDate>
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  <title>Congratulations to Dr Gabriel Dansereau!</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20260601.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Huge congratulations to <a href="../../bios/students/gabriel.qmd">Gabriel Dansereau</a> on successfully defending his PhD dissertation!</p>
<p>Gabriel’s doctoral work focused on how species interaction networks can serve as operational tools for biodiversity monitoring and conservation, including how spatial network predictions that quantify uncertainty can help optimise sampling of species interactions and yield indicators of network-level change. Two papers from this work were featured here previously:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="../../blognews/news/20250901.html">Overcoming the disconnect between species interaction networks and biodiversity conservation</a> (2025)</li>
<li><a href="../../blognews/news/20240722.html">Spatially explicit predictions of food web structure from regional-level data</a> (2024)</li>
</ul>
<p>I am honored to have co-supervised Gabriel and having been part of his PhD adventure!</p>
<p>Well done, Dr Dansereau — I look forward to collaborating further in the future!</p>



<a onclick="window.scrollTo(0, 0); return false;" id="quarto-back-to-top"><i class="bi bi-arrow-up"></i> Back to top</a> ]]></description>
  <category>lab news</category>
  <category>PhD defence</category>
  <category>congratulations</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20260601.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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  <title>First paper from Response Diversity Network is out</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20260306.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>The Response Diversity Network’s (RDN) <a href="https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oik.11358">first publication</a> was published earlier this year.</p>
<p>This was a fantastic collaborative effort between members of the RDN to scope how researchers/experts in the field of response diversity (RD) understand and apply the concept, but also an attempt to tease out some of the reasons why RD may be a challenging concept to understand and apply.</p>
<p>Owen Petchey provides a great summary of the paper in the <a href="https://responsediversitynetwork.github.io/RDN-website/posts/2026-03-02-Oikos-expert-priorities.html">RDN website</a>.</p>
<p>Find out more about this network, go to <a href="https://responsediversitynetwork.github.io/">https://responsediversitynetwork.github.io/</a> and if you work in the field of response diversity, <a href="https://responsediversitynetwork.github.io/RDN-website/join.html">join us</a>!</p>



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  <category>publications</category>
  <category>response diversity</category>
  <category>survey</category>
  <category>concepts and definitions</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20260306.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/4ae2ffa1-98cb-44f4-b432-536226e9c685/oik70022-fig-0005-m.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
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<item>
  <title>New paper: overcoming the disconnect between species interaction networks and biodiversity conservation</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20250901.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Congratulations to Gabriel Dansereau for spearheading a collaborative paper, <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534725001569">Dansereau et al.&nbsp;(2025)</a>, in <em>Trends in Ecology and Evolution</em>.</p>
<p>In this paper we discuss the persistent gap between the study of species interaction networks and their practical use in biodiversity conservation and management. Despite the wealth of theory on network structure, robustness and stability, this knowledge is rarely translated into indicators or tools that conservation practitioners can actually use. We review this disconnect and propose ways forward for embedding network-level information into biodiversity monitoring and decision-making, with a practical example using network robustness as an intretable and readily usable metric for large assessments of network stability to environmental change.</p>
<p>Read the full paper <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534725001569">here</a>.</p>



<a onclick="window.scrollTo(0, 0); return false;" id="quarto-back-to-top"><i class="bi bi-arrow-up"></i> Back to top</a> ]]></description>
  <category>publications</category>
  <category>ecological networks</category>
  <category>species interactions</category>
  <category>biodiversity indicators</category>
  <category>conservation</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20250901.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://www.cell.com/cms/10.1016/j.tree.2025.05.010/asset/792e50fd-89c5-409d-8172-16fee645610b/main.assets/b1_lrg.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>New paper: spatially explicit predictions of food web structure from regional-level data</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20240722.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Congratulations to Gabriel Dansereau on the publication of his latest paper, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0166">Dansereau, Barros and Poisot (2024)</a>, in <em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>.</p>
<p>The paper tackles a central challenge in ecological network research: species interaction data are sparse and unevenly sampled across space, making it hard to predict food web structure in regions that have not been directly surveyed. We show how regional-level metaweb data can be combined with spatial models to generate spatially explicit predictions of food web structure, while also accounting for ecological uniqueness across ecoregions.</p>
<p>This work contributes to a growing effort to make species interaction networks more useful as monitoring and conservation tools, extending predictions beyond the specific sites where interactions have been observed.</p>
<p>Read the full paper <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0166">here</a>.</p>



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  <category>publications</category>
  <category>ecological networks</category>
  <category>food webs</category>
  <category>biogeography</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20240722.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 22 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/images/rstb.2023.0166.f002.png" medium="image" type="image/png" height="72" width="144"/>
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  <title>Two new papers on wildlife forecasts for caribou in Northwest Territories, Canada</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20230401.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>In a great collaboration with Dr Frances Stewart and Dr Tati Micheletti (lead authors; but there were many others involved!), we have recently published new forecasts of caribou habitat availability and demographics for the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, (<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.2816">Stewart and Micheletti et al.&nbsp;2023</a>) and an assessment of the role of caribou as an umbrella species for conservation of boreal landbirds (<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/csp2.12908">Micheletti et al.&nbsp;2023</a>).</p>
<section id="boreal-caribou-habitat-and-demography-over-the-next-century-in-the-nwt" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="boreal-caribou-habitat-and-demography-over-the-next-century-in-the-nwt">Boreal caribou habitat and demography over the next century in the NWT</h2>
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<p>In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.2816">Stewart and Micheletti et al.&nbsp;(2023)</a>, we combined a complex landscape model (LandR; Barros et al.&nbsp;2023), with integrated vegetation and fire dynamics (and their responses to climate change), with boreal caribou resource selection models and demographic models to forecast changes in boreal caribou habitat availability and reproductive rates over the next century, in the NWT.</p>
<p>Overall, our models projected important shifts in boreal caribou habitat and relatively stable or declining growth rates. But results differed between locations (for instance, we saw habitat gains in the north and declines in the south). Importantly, we quantified uncertainty around our projections and noticed it is particularly high with respect to population growth rates.</p>
</div>
<div id="second-column" class="quarto-layout-cell" style="flex-basis: 30.0%;justify-content: center;">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/caribou.jpg" class="img-fluid"></p>
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<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/caribou2.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img" style="width:50.0%"></p>
<figcaption>Mean (right) and standard deviation (left) of boreal caribou habitat changes projected by a resource selection function model. From Stewart and Micheletti et al.&nbsp;2023.</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/caribou3.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img" style="width:50.0%"></p>
<figcaption>Population growth rate (lambda) changes over the next century, for different populations (colours) and climate change scenarios (lines). From Stewart and Micheletti et al.&nbsp;2023.</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>These results were summarised in the infographic below, and have received media coverage on Cabin Radio and the What On Earth show from CBC.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/caribouinfographic.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img" style="width:60.0%"></p>
<figcaption>Created by <a href="https://www.jeffdixonvisualartist.com/">Jeff Dixon</a></figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
</section>
<section id="the-role-of-boreal-caribou-as-an-umbrella-species-for-boreal-landbird-conservation-in-the-nwt" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="the-role-of-boreal-caribou-as-an-umbrella-species-for-boreal-landbird-conservation-in-the-nwt">The role of boreal caribou as an umbrella species for boreal landbird conservation in the NWT</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/csp2.12908">Micheletti et al.&nbsp;(2023)</a> we used a similar modelling framework to project habitat for boreal caribou and several boreal landbird species, and to assess whether by protecting boreal caribou habitat we can also protect landbird habitat. We combined the same dynamic landscape models and caribou habitat model as in Stewart and Micheletti et al.&nbsp;(2023), with landbird habitat suitability models, and projected caribou and bird habitat changes for the next century, under different climate scenarios. Despite the caribou’s wide habitat range, our results showed that for many bird species caribou is unlikely to be a good umbrella, and alternative conservation approaches will need to be considered. This is especially true for wetland, grassland, deciduous and mixedwood forest specialists. For conifer specialists, caribou is likely to play a better role as an umbrella species.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/birdsumbrella.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img"></p>
<figcaption>The potential value of caribou as an umbrella for landbirds varies depending on the landbird species considered and their habitat preferences. From Micheletti et al.&nbsp;(2023).</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>


</section>

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  <category>publications</category>
  <category>wildlife</category>
  <category>forecasting</category>
  <category>SpaDES</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20230401.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Sat, 01 Apr 2023 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/images/caribouinfographic.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
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  <title>FOR-CAST is hiring</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20220616.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Our very own Alex Chubaty is hiring a geospatial programmer at FOR-CAST Research &amp; Analytics. If you like coding and being deeply involved with landscape and forest model development, this is for you! In addition to having a great boss ;), you’ll be collaborating with several dynamic and fun teams, such as <a href="https://predictiveecology.org/">Predictive Ecology Lab</a>, <a href="https://www.sbf.ulaval.ca/professeurs/steve-cumming">Steve Cumming’s Lab at ULaval</a>, and me!</p>
<p>Don’t miss out on this opportunity to participate in meaningful and transparent ecological model development! <a href="https://for-cast.ca/jobs/postings/2022-06-08_programmer-r-geospatial/" class="uri">https://for-cast.ca/jobs/postings/2022-06-08_programmer-r-geospatial/</a></p>



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  <category>job opportunity</category>
  <category>SpaDES</category>
  <category>FOR-CAST</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20220616.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Thu, 16 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Long due: our findings from the Landscapes In Motion Project</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20200901.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>The <a href="https://friresearch.ca/project/landscapes-motion">Landscapes in Motion project</a> came to its end and we wrapped up our (the Modelling Team’s) findings in <a href="https://friresearch.ca/publications/modelling">this nice post</a>. If you are curious about the Fire Regime and Visual Applications findings, check them out <a href="https://friresearch.ca/publications/fire-regime">here</a> and <a href="https://friresearch.ca/publications/visual-applications">here</a>.</p>
<p>I was truly honoured to be part of this project, during which I learned so much about the natural fire regimes in the Foothills of Alberta, about modelling and even a little about the role of Indigenous Peoples as managers of these beautiful landscapes. Our publications will be coming out soon, so stay tuned!</p>



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  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <category>results</category>
  <category>fire ecology</category>
  <category>Alberta SW Foothills</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20200901.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<item>
  <title>Landscapes in Motion goes to the Ecological Society of America meeting in New Orleans!</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20180917.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Another blog post I wrote for the LIM webpage that you can find below. If you are lazy, like me, here’s a shortcut.</p>
<p><em>This piece was originally published on the Landscapes in Motion blog. Landscapes in Motion is a large-scale, multidisciplinary project examining historical wildfire patterns and landscape change in the southern Rockies of Alberta, Canada. You can learn more about the project at <a href="https://friresearch.ca/news/landscapes-in-motion-goes-to-the-ecological-society-of-america-meeting-in-new-orleans">Landscapes In Motion</a>.</em></p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p><em>An important part of a researcher’s job is to learn more about what other scientists are doing in different institutions, fields, and ecosystems, and stay up-to-date on what they’re discovering. This year, Dr.&nbsp;Ceres Barros with the Landscapes in Motion modelling team identified a great opportunity to present her preliminary findings at a significant scientific conference in New Orleans. Once there, she had the chance to soak up new knowledge from fire ecologists from around North America. Dr.&nbsp;Barros gained some important new perspectives on her work with Landscapes in Motion and made some connections with fire ecologists from far beyond her home base at the University of British Columbia.</em></p>
<p>It was a meeting of ecologists like any other. Most of us were still wearing our field gear—ecologists are always ready for the field, and rarely ready for any formal event!—but the enthusiasm of meeting with colleagues and friends we haven’t seen for years was evident in many faces on the first day of the conference. We hugged, we talked about our current work, and got lost amidst the endless list of talks, workshops, and posters to choose from.</p>
<p>To top it all off, we got to experience it all in New Orleans, this year’s host city for the <a href="https://www.esa.org/esa/">Ecological Society of America</a>’s <a href="https://esa.org/neworleans/">annual meeting</a>! The city’s hot, humid air and ever-present jazz music were the perfect backdrop for our conversations. I was in for an exciting week and I couldn’t have been happier, regretting only that it never occurred to me to pack something warm enough for the air-conditioned conference hall!</p>
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/94402-jazzbandneworleans_ceresbarros.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="A jazz band at the historical Spotted Cat Music Club in Frenchmen Street. Photo by C. Barros.">{alt=” A jazz band at the historical Spotted Cat Music Club in Frenchmen Street. Photo by C. Barros. “}</p>
<p>One of the reasons why I chose to participate in this year’s meeting was the central theme: “Extreme events, ecosystem resilience and human well-being”. I knew I would be able to listen to many interesting talks on fire ecology that would give me a good overview of the ‘state of the art’ of the field, particularly in North America. I also hoped that many of these talks would touch on concepts of ecological resilience and stability, which describe how an ecosystem recovers after a disturbance and whether it experiences drastic changes, and which are among the primary drivers of my work.</p>
<p>I was not disappointed. I did attend several sessions focused on ecological stability and resilience, and I learned quite a bit about current research in fire ecology in North America. For instance, I learned that our fellow colleagues south of the border are increasingly concerned about how understory plant communities may affect diversity and/or tree growth after a fire. At the same time, many recognize the importance of fire for promoting ecosystem resilience and researchers are exploring the conditions under which fire can be used to maintain desirable ecosystem conditions.</p>
<h1 id="whats-trending-in-fire-ecology-role-of-the-understory-vegetation">What’s trending in fire ecology: role of the understory vegetation</h1>
<p>There were two particularly interesting talks on the interplay between fire and understory communities that drew my attention.</p>
<p>The first was by PhD candidate <a href="https://saffordlab.wordpress.com/people-2/">Clark Richter</a>, who shared the results from his research on post-fire regeneration in Sierra Nevada following the Power Fire in 2004. His work revealed that shrub cover is higher in patches that burned at higher severity (when tree mortality was close to 100%), but that there are fewer species of shrubs and trees that colonize these patches. This is partly because these patches have harsher conditions—soils become drier and more nutrient-poor following the loss of plant cover, and only the most hardy species can grow. In addition, many tree seedlings need light to germinate and grow, and they are unable to do so under the dense shrubs that regenerate faster in severely burned patches.</p>
<p>The second talk that stuck with me was by <a href="https://jesseedmiller.com/">Dr.&nbsp;Jesse Miller</a>. He pointed to similar results across several fires in California, but he further showed that variable-severity fires promoted higher levels of species diversity across the landscape than fires that burned mostly at high severity. He described these variable-severity fires—i.e., fires that killed less vegetation in some locations than in others— as having high ‘pyrodiversity’.</p>
<p>Although unsurprising, the results from these two talks confirmed my expectations that shrubs might outcompete trees in places where both trees and shrubs can colonize severely burned patches. They also confirmed for me the importance of mixed-severity fire regimes for maintaining landscape-wide plant diversity. Finally, they show that further increases in fire size and severity will compromise forest regeneration in many parts of the U.S. and quite likely Canada too.</p>
<p>For these and other reasons, fire ecologists are advocating more and more for the use of fire to promote ecosystem resilience. The talks by <a href="https://cfri.colostate.edu/about-cfri/emma-williams/">Emma Williams</a> and <a href="http://www.auburn.edu/cosam/faculty/biology/hermann/index.htm">Dr.&nbsp;Sharon Hermann</a> presented the results of important field experiments that simulated different fire regimes using prescribed burning, then evaluated forest regeneration under these treatments. On the one hand, prescribed burning generally helped trees cope with drier conditions that typically follow fire, unless they had been exposed to drought before the fires. On the other hand, prescribed burning had no effect on the growth of longleaf pine (<em>Pinus palustris</em>), an important species for the logging industry in the American state of Georgia. Finally, I was impressed to learn that researchers are testing the use of fire to control invasive species and/or less desired species.</p>
<h1 id="fresh-eyes-on-my-work">Fresh eyes on my work</h1>
<p>The other reason why I attended the ESA this year was to hear feedback on my own work. With my work fitting so well with the conference theme, I was eager to discuss it with other researchers and hear their thoughts and suggestions about the models I am developing.</p>
<p>I was extremely happy when other researchers in my field came around to have a look at my poster and discuss it with me. By then I already had a good idea of the direction fire research is taking in the U.S., so I was not surprised to hear some of them noting that my models may be biased if we don’t consider understory plant (e.g., shrub) recovery after a fire and how it influences tree regeneration.</p>
<p>At this point it is hard to foresee whether we’ll be able to take these aspects into account in our models, but we must not forget that they probably are important for ecosystem dynamics even in Canada. Either way, Landscapes in Motion is paving the way for more complex models of fire dynamics so that future researchers will be able to account for other forest components including not only understory species, but also pest and disease dynamics.</p>
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/8ffb1-esa2018posterhall_ceresbarros.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="A peek at the ESA poster session. Besides the science, I particularly enjoyed that some stands gave out chocolate! Photo by C. Barros.">{alt=” A peek at the ESA poster session. Besides the science, I particularly enjoyed that some stands gave out chocolate! Photo by C. Barros. “}</p>
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/7db8b-esa2018poster_ceresbarros.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="Our poster entitled “Including fire-vegetation feedbacks for modelling mixed-severity fire regimes at large spatial scales”. Despite being situated away from the main flow of people, many researchers in fire ecology and beyond came to see it and discuss with me. Photo by C. Barros.">{alt=” Our poster entitled "Including fire-vegetation feedbacks for modelling mixed-severity fire regimes at large spatial scales". Despite being situated away from the main flow of people, many researchers in fire ecology and beyond came to see it and discuss with me. Photo by C. Barros. “}</p>
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/8b729-esa2018posterfull_ceresbarros.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="Our poster, now in a readable format! Note that all results are preliminary, but the key message is that when we include not only the effects of fire on vegetation, but also the effects of vegetation on fire, it can change the expected fire properties like size and severity. Note the “TO-DO” list—I think I’ll be very busy in the coming months!">{alt=” Our poster, now in a readable format! Note that all results are preliminary, but the key message is that when we include not only the effects of fire on vegetation, but also the effects of vegetation on fire, it can change the expected fire properties like size and severity. Note the “TO-DO” list—I think I’ll be very busy in the coming months! “}</p>
<p>I can’t say that the ESA meeting has significantly changed the plans I had for my work, but it surely consolidated my ideas. For one, I will keep in mind that my models may have some bias towards favouring tree regeneration because they do not account for shrub growth. Also, it will be interesting to assess landscape-wide diversity under different levels of fire severity and relate that to forest resilience to changing fire regimes. Finally, it was gratifying to hear my colleagues say that the work we are developing under Landscapes in Motion is very timely and everyone was looking forward to seeing more of the model!</p>
<p>All in all, it was a productive meeting in a vibrant and diverse city, and I came back to Victoria motivated and filled with eagerness to continue the development of our model!</p>
</blockquote>



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  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <category>conferences</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20180917.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 17 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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  <title>Modeller puts her field boots on - lessons learned from fieldwork in the Alberta Foothills</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20180917.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>When <a href="http://treering.forestry.ubc.ca/person/cameron-naficy-2/">Dr Cameron Naficy</a> invited me to participate on his field season this last summer I immediately said ‘yes’. “What a great opportunity to breathe fresh air and do some exercise, while I get more familiar with the ecosystems I’m supposed to be modelling and with dendrochronology field sampling techniques!” I thought, as my eyes got watery, not from emotion but from staring at my screen for too long<sup>1</sup>.</p>
<p>So, on the last week of June I joined Dr Cameron Naficy and his field crew in the southwestern Alberta Foothills to help them collect fire scars and tree-core samples as part of the <a href="https://friresearch.ca/project/landscapes-motion">Landscapes in Motion project</a> (LIM). As the ecological modeller in the LIM team I don’t <em>need</em> (as in, <em>my work doesn’t require me to</em>) to carry out field work - I sort of parasitize my colleagues for their data. However, I think most will agree that going to the field at least once can be extremely helpful for a number of reasons.</p>
<section id="understanding-the-ecosystem-being-modelled" class="level4">
<h4 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="understanding-the-ecosystem-being-modelled"><em>Understanding the ecosystem being modelled</em></h4>
<p>Every ecological modeller should <em>see</em> the ecosystems they model whenever possible. For me, this means that whatever I am trying to simulate becomes “real” and not just species names and a bunch of trait values. During that week in the field with Dr Naficy and his team, I gained a much better understanding of the different plant communities in the areas that we visited, and the fire-vegetation dynamics that shape them. For example, as we moved from the plains to the Rocky Mountain Foothills, it was fascinating to observe the transition from large expanses of grassland, towards relatively narrow aspen-dominated forest edges and, finally, conifer-dominated forests. These ecological transitions were in many cases visibly marked by interesting fire dynamics. In some locations fires seemed to have spread from the grasslands where dry fuels allow them to spread rapidly, and upon reaching aspen woodland edges higher moisture levels and lower fire sensitivity of these trees acted as a natural fire suppressant. Because aspen has high post-fire regeneration, it can quickly re-colonize the disturbed forest edges, closing a positive feedback loop between fire and vegetation that maintains the aspen-dominated forest edges. In these locations, we observed several aspen trees with multiple fire scars and an inner forest with uneven age structures (i.e.&nbsp;trees of different ages). This is an interesting self-maintaining fire-vegetation dynamics that seems relatively common in this region in the grassland-forest ecotone transition.</p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p><em>Every ecological modeller should see the ecosystems they model whenever possible</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other locations, like even-aged lodgepole pine forest stands, we saw indication of very different fire dynamics. There, relatively recent high severity fires had been responsible for replacing whole forest stands leaving fewer fire scars and generating a forest of relatively young and even-aged lodgepole pine. Depending on the severity of a potential next fire, these forests may evolve to uneven age stands if future fires cause partial mortality, or be totally replaced by a new cohorts of Lodgepole pine.</p>
</section>
<section id="getting-to-know-the-team-better" class="level4">
<h4 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="getting-to-know-the-team-better"><em>Getting to know the team better</em></h4>
<p>Science is all about collaborating and good collaborations are easier when we get along with our colleagues. Being able to help the field team in their work is a great opportunity to get to know the people I collaborate with at a deeper level, beyond the occasional meeting or Skype call. It also motivates informal discussions and debates of ideas - how many great scientific papers started over a beer or during a hike to a sampling plot?</p>
</section>
<section id="meeting-landowners-and-members-of-the-local-communities" class="level4">
<h4 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="meeting-landowners-and-members-of-the-local-communities"><em>Meeting landowners and members of the local communities</em></h4>
<p>Landowners need to be contacted in order to gain access to the plots both in private and provincial land and can be extremely helpful when it comes to knowing whether certain plots are within driving and walking distances. Members of the local communities can also tell us about their own perception of wildfires in the region and give us clues as to where fire scars are more likely to be found. I did not have much contact with the local people, as I was only in the field for a short time, but I was lucky to meet with a landowner who gave us their perspective of fire dynamics in the region. It was interesting to hear them highlight the importance of winter fires in the region, which to my knowledge are frequently ignored in the literature. In the southern Alberta Foothills, these off-season fires arise are caused by Chinook winds that bring masses of warmer air, which cause snowmelt and rapid drying of the grasslands. Although they can burn large expanses of grassland and become dangerous and disruptive for landowners, it is unlikely that these fires destroy much of the surrounding forest, which should be able to keep higher moisture levels. It is important to bear these different dynamics in mind when we are trying to model ecosytems, even if they are not going to be incorporated in the models - they could be important sources of model error!</p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>“Unmodelled” dynamics can be important sources of model error.</p>
</blockquote>
</section>
<section id="having-a-good-time" class="level4">
<h4 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="having-a-good-time"><em>Having a good time</em></h4>
<p>I saw a number of species that I had never seen before. I learned how to whistle using a grass-blade. I saw elk amidst the trees only a few tens of meters away from me. I rode a helicopter (SOOOO FUN!). I tried elk meat for the first time. And I got some nice tree cores to add to my field-trinkets collection!</p>
<p>Field work is tiresome, but so gratifying! It teaches us so much and in the best way possible - hands-on!</p>


</section>


<a onclick="window.scrollTo(0, 0); return false;" id="quarto-back-to-top"><i class="bi bi-arrow-up"></i> Back to top</a><div id="quarto-appendix" class="default"><section id="footnotes" class="footnotes footnotes-end-of-document"><h2 class="anchored quarto-appendix-heading">Footnotes</h2>

<ol>
<li id="fn1"><p>although I use the wonderful <em>stretchly</em> app to remind me of moving and blinking, my body keeps screaming “enough screen time for today”!↩︎</p></li>
</ol>
</section></div> ]]></description>
  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <category>field work</category>
  <category>fire ecology</category>
  <category>Alberta SW Foothills</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20180917.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 17 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<item>
  <title>SpaDES goes to ULaval, Quebec City</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20180327.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>That’s right, we’re giving two SpaDES workshops at the University of Laval, Quebec City, this coming May 2nd.</p>
<p>The two workshop sessions are part of the <a href="http://www.cef-cfr.ca/index.php?n=Colloque.Colloque2018">12th Annual Conference of the Centre for Forest Research (Centre d’Etude de la Foret)</a>, and we were very happy to discover that we have a full house for both!</p>
<p>The session will be an introduction to SpaDES. We’ll discuss it’s potential and how it can be used at a higher level (that is, without having to dig in the code so much). The second session is targeted to those who wish to learn how they can develop their own simulation models in SpaDES. It’ll be more technical, of course, but still fun if you’re half as geeky as I am (and I’m not <em>that</em> geeky, mind you!).</p>
<p>I’m super excited for this and really looking forward to be teaching SpaDES to new faces!</p>
<p>You can find out more about SpaDES <a href="http://spades.predictiveecology.org/">here</a>, and check out the <a href="http://spades-workshops.predictiveecology.org/articles/index.html">previous workshop</a> material!</p>



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  <category>workshops</category>
  <category>SpaDES</category>
  <category>conferences</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/news/20180327.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Tue, 27 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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  <title>Let’s talk about models: what are they, why do we need them?</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20180321.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Here’s another blog post I’ve written for the <a href="https://friresearch.ca/news/models-what-are-they-and-why-do-we-need-them">Landscapes in Motion project blog</a>. If you haven’t already, check the Landscapes in Motion website - and keep an eye on it for blog posts from other team members and project news!</p>
<p><em>This piece was originally published on the Landscapes in Motion blog. Landscapes in Motion is a large-scale, multidisciplinary project examining historical wildfire patterns and landscape change in the southern Rockies of Alberta, Canada. You can learn more about the project at <a href="https://friresearch.ca/project/landscapes-motion">Landscapes In Motion</a>.</em></p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>A “model” is just a representation of reality. Models are nearly everywhere and come in all shapes and sizes. They are an important part of weather forecasts, stock market predictions, medication dosage estimates, and much more.</p>
<p>We use and need models because reality is often too complex, costly, or slow for our purposes. Models not only represent reality, but they<em>simplify</em> it. In other words, they all take shortcuts… which means that at some level and at some point all models are wrong!<sup>1</sup> So, when designing a model we need to be clear about<em>what</em>we want to model and the<em>model purpose</em>.</p>
<h4 id="but-whatare-models" class="anchored"><strong>But what<em>are</em> models?</strong></h4>
<p>We can think of models as theater plays. The plot or story is the system that they try to represent (for example, the weather) and the characters are the model components that interact with each other (for example, temperature and wind). These model components are called “variables”.</p>
<p>In a play, some characters have leading roles and others have supporting roles. Likewise, some variables are more important than others in determining how the represented system functions. Theoretically, we could have an unlimited number of variables in a model. But just like having too many characters in a play makes it hard to follow, too many variables make a model hard to grasp and not necessarily more accurate than a simpler model. So a large part of a modeller’s job is to figure out which variables to use, and how many.</p>
<h4 id="why-do-we-need-models" class="anchored"><strong>Why do we need models?</strong></h4>
<p>Can you imagine a world where your doctor says, “Well, we don’t really know when you should take this medicine, so… just try it at random times of the day and see when it feels more effective”. Or you are buckling up in the airplane and the captain says, “We have no idea what the wind speed and direction will be when we land, so we’ll just have to wing it,<em>literally</em>!”.</p>
<p>Got the idea?</p>
<p>Models help us understand the world around us. Most of us are “modelling” every day without realising it. For instance, before crossing the road you look both ways and your brain assesses the speed of coming cars, their distance, and anything else that might influence your safety, like a bend in the road that limits visibility. Your brain then tries to<em>predict</em> whether you’ll be hit by a vehicle if you cross the road, and you make the decision of waiting or going for it. Of course, this is not a formal model, but the idea is that our actions often require some sense of “what will happen if…?”. Models help us to both gain that knowledge and to answer that question, allowing us to make better social, political, ecological, or economic choices.</p>
<p>The most helpful models are those that have less probability of being wrong - we call this probability<em>model uncertainty</em>. But how much we allow a model to be wrong depends on our goal. While we are okay with our weather app telling us there is 70% chance of rain, we will not accept a 70% chance that a skyscraper will not fall after a small earthquake. Reducing model uncertainty is all about having the right variables and sufficient information.</p>
<h4 id="models-in-ecology" class="anchored"><strong>Models in ecology</strong></h4>
<p>Ecologists use a variety of modelling techniques depending on the question they are trying to answer, and the amount and type of information available. Field ecologists most often want to understand the relationships between variables they have measured in the field. For instance, to understand whether trees grow taller in wetter or drier soils, they would measure tree height over a range of soil moisture conditions and use statistical models to relate tree height with soil water content.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-left">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/images/62978-model_fig.png" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="267"></p>
<figcaption>Figure 1. An example of a model depicting the relationship between tree height and soil water content.</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p>Theoretical ecologists, on the other hand often rely on purely mathematical concepts to formulate their models. Instead of going to the field and measuring tree height and soil water content, theoretical ecologists would use mathematical equations that reflect their knowledge about how trees grow taller in wetter areas. They might then compare their model’s predictions against measurements of actual trees, but many theoretical models are never actually confronted with “reality.”</p>
<p>Then there are ecological modellers, like us in the<em>Landscapes in Motion</em> modelling team, who are somewhere in between. In complex projects such as ours we need a bit of everything. For example, to model the growth of an individual Douglas-fir tree, we can use a mathematical model relating tree size and tree age. But to model<em>where</em>Douglas-fir trees can grow, we would use statistical models relating climate conditions with the tree’s real-life range. As you can see from Figure 2, Douglas-fir is unlikely to germinate in tropical or arctic climates!</p>
<p><strong><em>We are neither relying solely on data, nor using theoretical models alone. We combine both (which is why we’re awesome!).</em></strong></p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-center">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/images/ae96c-pseudotsuga_menziesii_levila-by-us.png" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="221"></p>
<figcaption>Figure 2. The current geographical range of Douglas-fir, divided into its two varieties: the coast Douglas-fir in green (also known as the Oregon pine, or Douglas spruce) and the Rocky Mountain Douglas-fir in blue. Image by the <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3APseudotsuga_menziesii_levila.png">U.S. Geological Survey</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p><strong>Modelling as part of<em>Landscapes in Motion</em></strong></p>
<p>Our work is still in its early phases, but in general our objective is to understand how fire, vegetation, climate and topography interact to produce fires of different sizes, frequencies, and severities in the Foothills of Southern Alberta. Our model will need to reproduce the processes governing forest growth and fire spread, which will affect each other, and in turn how these are affected by climate and topography. We also want our model to be reproducible, easily updatable and transparent, which is why we are developing it using<em>SpaDES</em>a modelling framework that makes all of these easily achievable.</p>
<p><em>How</em> these processes may be simulated in<em>SpaDES</em>deserves in itself a whole new blog post! So stay tuned if you want to accompany us in our modelling adventure!</p>
<p>If you want to find out more about<em>SpaDES</em> check these out:</p>
<p>SpaDES page:<a href="http://spades.predictiveecology.org/" class="uri">http://spades.predictiveecology.org/</a></p>
<p>SpaDES workshops:<a href="http://spades-workshops.predictiveecology.org/articles/index.html" class="uri">http://spades-workshops.predictiveecology.org/articles/index.html</a></p>
</blockquote>




<a onclick="window.scrollTo(0, 0); return false;" id="quarto-back-to-top"><i class="bi bi-arrow-up"></i> Back to top</a><div id="quarto-appendix" class="default"><section id="footnotes" class="footnotes footnotes-end-of-document"><h2 class="anchored quarto-appendix-heading">Footnotes</h2>

<ol>
<li id="fn1"><p>“<em>All models are wrong, some are useful</em>” is a very famous (and correct!) phrase from a famous statistician, George Box, and probably the first thing aspiring modellers/statisticians learn about modelling!↩︎</p></li>
</ol>
</section></div> ]]></description>
  <category>modelling</category>
  <category>ecology</category>
  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20180321.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
  <title>New country, new city, new project and new ways of thinking</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20171023.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Settling in a new country, city and workplace isn’t always easy, but I always find it exciting. Installing yourself and sorting out the personal and professional admin stuff is always a bit of a challenge when you move. But this time, the challenge was extended to adapting to a new work environment and to a different perspective on science and research. Not only have I moved from France to British Columbia, Canada, but I have also moved from several years working in a purely academic, university environment to working as a postdoctoral research fellow in a government institution - the <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/research-centres/pfc/13489">Pacific Forestry Centre</a>.</p>
<p>I now have to adapt my way of thinking and working to a reality that is “producing directly usable science”. This is neither better or worse than what I’ve done so far, which concerned a much more theoretically-grounded investigation of how ecosystems might change with climate forcing and land-use change. But it certainly requires that my objectives and methods become more driven by their influence on management, rather than my scientific curiosity! - although so far I feel that the two go hand-in-hand… lucky me! - I know that some researchers might find applied sciences less appealing. I find having management-driven expectations to be an added challenge that makes it all even more motivating. I’ve never considered myself a person whose research seeks to understand the unknown for the sake of increasing my knowledge, and the scientific community’s, about something. I’m usually drawn to problems that affect the “here and now” and that help us understand how our actions as humans can be beneficial, or detrimental, to ecosystems. So, naturally, working in an applied context is very attractive to me.</p>
<p>This is why I was happy to embrace the opportunity to become part of the <a href="https://friresearch.ca/project/landscapes-motion">Landscapes In Motion project</a>. This project aims at understanding the dynamics of forest ecosystems in the southern Rockies of Alberta (note to Americans reading this: you’re likely to call these the Northern Rockies ;) ), by taking into account the interactions between fire, vegetation and climate. Ultimately, we will strive to understand both past and present dynamics to be able to predict how these might change in the future, under scenarios of climate warming and alternative land management practices.</p>
<p>Since my arrival to Victoria, BC, almost 4 weeks ago, I’ve plunged into the literature of modelling fire-dynamics forest ecosystems and found that (probably like in any other ecosystem) there is a multitude of drivers, biotic and abiotic that make studying these dynamics a complex, yet very interesting task. But I was already used to this reality. What is really new to me is that this time it’ll be impossible not to consider the economic and cultural aspects of these ecosystems - or should I say socio-ecosystems…?</p>
<p>Forests in the foothills of Alberta are a scene where climatic, ecological, economic, social and political actors all have leading roles. The spatio-temporal dynamics of fire are affected by ecosystem structure and composition, but also directly by climate conditions. In turn, ecosystem structure and composition will also change if both fire regimes and climate conditions are altered. Then, there’s the “human side” of things. Forests have high economic value, both in terms of exploitation and in terms of their intrinsic value (think about how a nice forest view can increase the value of real estate). They also have high social, cultural and conservation values, by providing a space for various recreational activities and habitat for numerous species of animals, plants, fungi, etc.</p>
<p>Finally, there are the political aspects that encompass all of the above. A particularly interesting one for me is the cultural and political interests linked to the indigenous peoples of Canada - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Nations">First Nations</a>. First Nations peoples are slowly regaining recognition and political power, and consequently reclaiming the rights to what were originally their lands. Being European, this brings me a whole new set of things to consider. Not only are the interests of these people often different from those of other stakeholders, but their knowledge of the land and its fire regimes has often been ignored, by scientists and by land managers, despite its enormous value. Indigenous communities are known to have used fire in the past for managing the landscape. With the arrival of the mid 20th century, forest management strove to suppress fire, and the “natural” fire regimes (AKA pre-industrial - that’s pre-1950s in this case) that had shaped forest dynamics thus far were also suppressed. As a consequence, forest structure and composition, and their dynamics are likely to have changed, and fuel accumulation increased. We now believe this may be one of the reasons why fires might be more severe lately - but do see this nice <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/">article</a> for other reasons related with climate change.</p>
<p>Another interesting socio-ecological aspect is related to caribou conservation. Caribou populations in Canada have suffered major declines in the last few decades. Although many factors continue to contribute to this, habitat loss from forest fires is certainly one that might cause further decline in caribou numbers. Seeing that the Government of Canada is currently investing on the study and protection of this species (see for instance <a href="http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/canada/conservation-protection/13201">here</a> and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2017/07/government_of_canadareleasesproposedfederalactionplanonborealcar.html">here</a>), understanding fire dynamics and their consequences is of even greater immediate interest.</p>
<p>I’m sure that like me, you have already realized the dimensions and complexity of fire dynamics, and their consequences for Canadian forests. You probably also understand what is making me enthusiastic about this new project, but if not I’ll say it out loud. I feel that my research will not only quench my thirst for knowledge, but will also actively contribute to a sustainable management of these ecosystems - something that I’ve been wanting to do since I decided I wanted to be an ecologist, and I was probably 10 back then!</p>



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  <category>jobs</category>
  <category>life</category>
  <category>learnings</category>
  <category>moving</category>
  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20171023.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 23 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
  <title>A ‘meet me’ post for Landscapes in Motion</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20171128.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>I have recently written a blog post about myself for the Landscapes in Motion blog (here’s the <a href="https://friresearch.ca/news/meet-ceres-barros">link</a>) which I am also sharing here. If you haven’t already, check the Landscapes in Motion website - and keep an eye on it for blog posts from other team members and project news!</p>
<p><em>This piece was originally published on the Landscapes in Motion blog. Landscapes in Motion is a large-scale, multidisciplinary project examining historical wildfire patterns and landscape change in the southern Rockies of Alberta, Canada. You can learn more about the project at <a href="https://friresearch.ca/project/landscapes-motion">Landscapes In Motion</a>.</em></p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>I’ve always been quite stubborn—although I prefer to consider myself as “someone who knows what they want”—and I knew from a young age that I wanted to work towards the protection of Nature. Unfortunately, I can’t say this came from growing up surrounded by impressive nature, or in a very natural setting. In fact, my childhood was mostly spent in an urban environment, close to Lisbon, Portugal. So I blame my Father for having exposed me to the National Geographic TV series and magazines as far back as I can remember, for repeating to me every day that even saving just one toilet paper leaf would help forests, for telling me water is as precious as gold. It is he who taught me to love and respect all things natural.</p>
<p>(I did, however, always have the sea present in my daily life, and at the age of 10 I got so angry about ocean pollution that I wrote a petition to the EU to “stop pollution and killing nature”—needless to say that getting signatures from my schoolmates didn’t really improve my popularity…!)</p>
<p>So choosing a degree was easy. It had to be Biology, although I ended up specialising in Terrestrial Ecology rather than “marine stuff”. Questions about my future arose after I graduated from the University of Lisbon. How did I want to help the world? Through research, consulting, or by getting involved with environmental policy? Fortunately for me, it wasn’t long before it became clear to me that my calling was research.</p>
<p>During my year as an MSc student at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, I fell in love with the study of ecosystem resilience and stability. It fascinated me how ecosystems can cope with changes in fire regimes, climate, and human land-use. To a certain degree, all ecosystems are able to re-organize themselves and “absorb” these and other disturbances; however, they can only be “pushed” to a certain limit, beyond which they collapse and change to another type of ecosystem. How far can we push ecosystems, which ecosystems are more fragile, which are more resilient, are certain types of disturbances worse than others? These are the sort of questions that get me excited and motivate my work.</p>
<p>So, I decided to embark on a PhD journey where I could pursue my curiosity. This journey took me to Grenoble, in the French Alps, where I became interested in exploring whether different types of ecosystems were more sensitive to disturbances, and if different types of disturbances had greater consequences for the stability of these ecosystems. So I went big, testing these questions at the scale of landscapes and using computer models as my guinea pigs. I studied how climate change, changes in drought regimes and changes in rural activities interact and affect the vegetation in mountain ecosystems of the French Alps – more precisely in Écrins National Park. My modelling experiments have shown that the way humans use these ecosystems can have a very strong effect on many plant communities. Yet, warmer temperatures will also drive important long-term changes in these systems, with forests climbing in elevation and alpine plants receding. The effects of drought were at shorter time scales but quite drastic when drought was very severe and frequent.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-left">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/images/ecrins.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="280"></p>
<figcaption>Écrins National Park (Parc National des Écrins) is in southeast France in the Alps ([Google Maps](https://maps.google.fr))</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p>An important lesson to take from this work is that disturbances affect ecosystems at different time scales. A severe fire, for example, can cause immediate changes in a forest by killing younger trees and burning ground-level vegetation. These changes can be measured year by year as ground-level vegetation recovers, and also over decades and centuries, as the fire will have affected the age distribution of the forest’s trees. It is important that we recognise this and remember that a forest’s lifetime is much longer than a human’s. Understanding how fire regimes have shaped forests and how they might change with climate warming requires looking relatively far into the past and into the future—which is why we <em>need</em> models.</p>
<div class="quarto-figure quarto-figure-right">
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/images/alpsphoto.jpg" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="280"></p>
<figcaption>Mountain ecosystems of the French Alps in Écrins National Park. Photo by Ceres Barros</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p>My passion for ecosystems, their resilience, and the lessons we can learn from them using computer models has brought me to the University of British Columbia, where I recently began a post-doctoral fellowship. As a member of the Landscapes in Motion team, I will develop models to reconstruct fire-driven dynamics in the forests of the Alberta foothills and predict how they might change in the future. Have past fires been very frequent and of low severity? Or infrequent and very severe? Or a mix of the two? What affected fire frequency and severity the most? Weather? The variety of tree species in the forest? Both? And what will happen if these change, will fires become more severe/frequent? And how will the forests change?</p>
<p>A lot has changed in the last year: I’m now living on a different continent, studying a different mountain ecosystem, and beginning the next stage of my career as a researcher. But some things never change—I’m still as stubborn as ever, which will serve me well as I strive to discover how ecosystems have been shaped and how they may change in the future.</p>
</blockquote>



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  <category>Landscapes in Motion</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20171128.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 23 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/images/alpsphoto.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Just ‘PhDed’ - what have I learnt?</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20170821.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>It’s done. Thesis submitted, revised, publicly defended and re-submitted! I now officially hold the Ph.D.&nbsp;title.</p>
<p>When my friends and family ask me whether I feel “any different” I disappoint them with a “erm, not actually…”. I think most of us expect the same feeling that we have when we graduate from a university degree, or from High School - I did at least. But the truth is, I was being treated like a “grown-up researcher” for quite some time already, so nothing really changed. Ok, I’m lying, I get to sign my e-mails with “Dr.&nbsp;Ceres Barros” or “Ceres Barros, Ph.D.”… amazing…</p>
<p>I think I’m actually happy that things didn’t change so much for me. I don’t feel any more special because I have a Ph.D.&nbsp;degree and I think no one should. Yes, it’s a hell lot of work. And yes, I poured my heart into it. But also, I did it because I’m passionate about my work and because I wanted to. So, for me the degree is merely confirming to others that I can do research independently. Other than that, I don’t feel any more special than my other MSc colleagues who chose to work for environmental consultancy, for instance.</p>
<p>I think what really matters is what you learn from the whole experience. In my case, I think my learnings were mostly on the personal side of things. Of course I’m much more experienced in a variety of technical aspects, like coding, statistical analyses and scientific writing. But what I felt was the greatest leap was “how to deal with others in academia” - and I know that I still have much to learn!</p>
<p>Coming from a pretty conventional Portuguese academic world and having experienced the British academic environment, France was pretty daunting. Not because it was France, per se, but because I was treated like a researcher, rather than a student, for the first time. I was expected to call for meetings and discuss with others when I needed, and not to wait for others to come to me and ask how my work was advancing. I was also expected to ask for help (and realise that I needed it beforehand) from other researchers other than my advisor(s). This. Was. Hard. It might sound stupid and obvious, but it really was hard for me. And I think that I’m not the only one out there. Shy students typically avoid asking for help and may not even realise they need help. I’m not very shy, but I thought that if I asked for help, others would think I was stupid or ignorant. So, I sometimes spent hours trying to figure out some silly R error, that my next-desk-neighbour could solve in a minute. I’m not saying it isn’t good to be independent and try to solve our own problems before asking for help, but many advisors forget to leave their students at-ease with their questions and doubts, which can lead to isolation and the loss of precious PhD time.</p>
<p>Apart from learning that asking for help is fine, I also learnt that (senior) researchers are not Gods. This was both funny and relieving. It was funny because it reminded me of the feeling that I had when I became older and realised that my Mom and Dad didn’t have the answer for everything (which I know now to be “42”). It was relieving because, if they are not Gods, then I don’t need to be one either. We all make mistakes, we all have different weaknesses and strengths, we are all human. That felt good… :)</p>
<p>I hope my short overview of my experience isn’t disappointing to current Ph.D.&nbsp;students that might read this, and in a way I hope it helps many of them get through some of the emotional challenges a Ph.D.&nbsp;can offer. Many recruiting labs/advisors forget to mention how a Ph.D.&nbsp;will challenge a student personally (or maybe they just don’t care about it) and that the emotional difficulties are part of the growing process. I know that hearing this from my senior colleagues would have helped me through the bad times…</p>
<p>Anyhow, I was very lucky to obtain a position in Victoria, Canada and will be soon moving there to start post-doc in Dr Eliot McIntire’s group. We’ll be working together on dynamical models of mixed-severity fire regimes in forest landscapes where many stakeholders have contrasting views on how the forests should be managed. So these are exciting times to me!</p>



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  <category>studying</category>
  <category>life</category>
  <category>learnings</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20170821.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Mon, 21 Aug 2017 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<item>
  <title>Why should the study of ecosystem stability be multidimensional?</title>
  <dc:creator>Ceres Barros</dc:creator>
  <link>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20160628.html</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 





<p>Because ecosystems ARE multidimensional. They are composed of multiples species, that represent multiple functional roles and interact in multiple ways. So why shouldn’t it be? Why should stability be studied from the lens of particular summary metrics, such as productivity, or species richness, or functional dispersion, when these only reflect part of the story?</p>
<p>Unable to find the answers to these questions and a methodological framework that allowed me to describe ecosystem states by taking into account the contribution of multiple ecosystem components, I and my co-authors have developed a way forward in this direction. We have made use of the R package “hypervolume” and used it as a tool to describe ecosystem states from a multidimensional perspective. The framework we propose can be adapted to many different kinds of data, such as species abundances their functional trait values, landscape composition, metabarcoding data, … We have tested the framework using simulated data sets, but it would be wonderful to see it applied in real cases…!</p>
<p>So, I invite you to have a look at <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.12617">our paper</a> and share your ideas and thoughts!</p>



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  <category>publications</category>
  <category>resilience</category>
  <category>stability</category>
  <guid>https://ceresbarros.github.io/EcoReFLab/blognews/posts/20160628.html</guid>
  <pubDate>Tue, 28 Jun 2016 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/7b951261-d302-4633-949c-1f7d720d83dc/ele12617-fig-0001-m.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
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